Blood of the Conqueror, Part 2: The Mummer’s Folly


In medieval and early Renaissance Europe, allegories or long-form metaphors were used as moral and explanatory story-telling devices. In these allegories, Folly was a character who resembled court jesters in appearance and served as the dramatic device to tempt the protagonist towards foolhardy deeds.

If A Song of Ice and Fire were an allegory, Varys and Illyrio would play the part of Folly in the story. Their soft, powdered hands and tittering laughs guide much of the action in A Song of Ice and Fire. Yet these men aren’t simple mummers performing trickery for laughs. Instead, their tricks and mummery are intended for the highest of dramas.

But their role as Folly is unclear and often misinterpreted. To attempt to expand our knowledge of the Varys-Illyrio plot, I’ve divided their scheming into two parts. In order to understand the plots of Illyrio and Varys, we have to explain the motivations and backgrounds of those pulling the strings. So, in today’s part we’ll be taking a deep dive into the underpinnings of Varys and Illyrio’s conspiracy before the start of events from A Game of Thrones. I plan to do this in three basic ways:

  • Their overall objective
  • A deep dive into the background of both players to include discussions of their origins, family dynamic and a bit of prophecy..
  • Finally, we’ll cover Varys and Illyrio’s opening acts in the folly during the reign of Aerys II.

Through this extended analysis, I hope you’ll come to understand Varys and Illyrio’s role as Folly in the story. But in the end, keep in mind that Varys and Illyrio’s folly will cause the deaths of tens of thousands in Westeros and Essos.

The Objective

“Tell me, Lord Varys, who do you truly serve?”

Varys smiled thinly. “Why, the realm, my good lord, how ever could you doubt that? I swear it by my lost manhood. I serve the realm, and the realm needs peace.” (AGOT, Eddard XIV)

At its most basic level, the ultimate objective of Varys and Illyrio has been to put Aegon, the purported son of Rhaegar Targaryen and Elia Martell, onto the throne of Westeros. But this basic objective doesn’t tell the full story. It doesn’t explain why Varys and Illyrio have worked seemingly most of their lives to destabilize whole continents and countries to put a mere teenager onto the throne of Westeros. And the why is desperately important to understand everything that’s set to come in The Winds of Winter.

At a surface level, Varys and Illyrio are in “for the realm.” They want peace for Westeros. But that surface answer that Varys gives Eddard in A Game of Thrones deliberately obfuscates their true motives. They aren’t in it for peace in and of itself. They want peace, but they want peace through their preferred candidate. In short, they’re not so interested in peace, they’re interested in power through a proxy; peace is the windfall.

Before the publication of A Dance with Dragons, the common perception among fans was that Varys and Illyrio were backing Viserys and Daenerys Targaryen’s reclamation of their father’s throne. However, the reveal of Aegon in A Dance with Dragons threw that common perception into considerable doubt. Further muddying the waters was a new theory that came to be known as the Blackfyre Theory.

At its core, the Blackfyre Theory states that Illyrio and Varys are attempting to place a descendant of House Blackfyre, a legitimated bastard branch of House Targaryen with royal ambitions, onto the Iron Throne. A further theory has it that Illyrio and Varys seek to place a descendant of Aerion Brightflame: a disgraced Targaryen who also had royal ambitions, onto the throne.

But instead of going through all of the potential proof for Aegon’s Blackfyre identity, let’s instead examine some evidence for Varys and Illyrio’s connection to the Blackfyres and Brightflames.

Writ in Blood and Marriage

According to Illyrio, he’s backing Daenerys and Aegon for castles and coins:

“What do you hope to gain from Queen Daenerys?”

“Are we back to that again? You are a persistent little man.” Illyrio gave a laugh and slapped his belly. “As you will. The Beggar King swore that I should be his master of coin, and a lordly lord as well. Once he wore his golden crown, I should have my choice of castles … even Casterly Rock, if I desired.” (ADWD, Tyrion II)

But Tyrion senses that something else is at stake for Illyrio. When he questions Illyrio a little more sharply, Tyrion knows that Illyrio is lying to him:

“I told you, my little friend, not all that a man does is done for gain. Believe as you wish, but even fat old fools like me have friends, and debts of affection to repay.”

Liar, thought Tyrion. There is something in this venture worth more to you than coin or castles. (ADWD, Tyrion II)

Illyrio’s connection to Westeros is tenuous. While he has mercantile interests in Westeros, he doesn’t have any apparent stake in Westeros’ politics outside of his relationship to Varys. Tyrion is shrewd enough to draw this out of Illyrio’s vague replies and apparent lies. So, what is Illyrio’s stake in Westeros?

For that we turn to Illyrio’s second wife: Serra Mopatis. By the time the story starts, she’s (at least allegedly) dead and has  been dead for some years. But Illyrio remains very, very fond of her:

“A maiden? I know the way of that.” Illyrio thrust his right hand up his left sleeve and drew out a silver locket. Inside was a painted likeness of a woman with big blue eyes and pale golden hair streaked by silver. ” Serra. I found her in a Lysene pillow house and brought her home to warm my bed, but in the end I wed her. Me, whose first wife had been a cousin of the Prince of Pentos. The palace gates were closed to me thereafter, but I did not care. The price was small enough, for Serra.” (ADWD, Tyrion II)

So, there are some really interesting tidbits worth bulleting from this passage:

  • Serra was Illyrio’s second wife, and he loved her deeply — much more fervently than his first wife who isn’t even given a name.
  • Illyrio’s marriage to her “closed the palace gates” to him. What this implies is that the marriage to Serra was seen as a slap to the Pentoshi nobility, who then shut Illyrio out of power in Pentos. Illyrio’s first wife had been a cousin to the Prince of Pentos; a subsequent marriage to a whore displayed a careless disregard for this first wife’s memory intolerable among the proud Pentoshi nobility.
  • Serra was from Lys and a prostitute.
  • Her hair was pale golden streaked by silver.

Now, let’s weave these points through a discussion of the name of “Serra” itself and the recent history of House Blackfyre. The name Serra is likely Valyrian in origin — which would make sense given that Lys traces its history as a Valyrian colony. But as the History of Westeros podcast noted, the name Serra or more accurately close variants come up specifically in Targaryen history. King Jaehaerys I Targaryen had a daughter named Saera who was given to the Faith, yet her journey ends in a way that’s similar to Serra Mopatis’ origin story.

Though given to the Faith as Maegelle was, Saera did not have Maegelle’s temperament. She ran away from the motherhouse where she was a novice and crossed the narrow sea. She was at Lys for a time, then Old Volantis, where she ended her days as the proprietor of a famous pleasure house. (TWOIAF, Jaehaerys I)

So, we have a Targaryen woman with the name of Saera who ends up becoming the madam of a Volantene pleasure house. Additionally, the Serra base comes up yet again in The World of Ice and Fire:

Viserra was betrothed to Lord Manderly of White Harbor only to die by mishap shortly afterward.. (TWOIAF, Jaehaerys I)

The takeaway here is that Serra/Saera was used to name two Targaryen women. But combining  that information with the details  Illyrio tells us about his first wife (e.g. her appearance, her background and her name) points to decently strong circumstantial evidence. And the naming convention ties into Westerosi and Essosi norms of naming children in a similar-but-not-exact fashion to relatives (Think Rickon to Rickard for instance as Nfriel once pointed out on reddit.)

The Female Line

“Illyrio believes in no cause but Illyrio. Gluttons are greedy men as a rule, and magisters are devious. Illyrio Mopatis is both. (ACOK, Daenerys III)

A somewhat common rebuttal to this is that the male line of House Blackfyre died out with Maelys on the Stepstones:

“When Maelys the Monstrous died upon the Stepstones, it was the end of the male line of House Blackfyre.” (ADWD, Tyrion II)

The realm would continue to be troubled by the claims of the Blackfyre Pretenders for four more generations, until the last of the descendants of Daemon Blackfyre through the male line was sent to the grave. (TWOIAF, Daeron II)

What’s conveniently left out of this equation is the female line. Its omission by Illyrio and The World of Ice and Fire speaks volumes, and it indicates that female Blackfyre line lives on. Given that Serra had Targaryen/Valyrian features, a Targaryen/Valyrian name, and that Illyrio shows extreme fondness for her, I surmise that Serra Blackfyre is the cornerstone to unraveling the case.

Solidifying the theory is Illyrio’s seemingly personal care for Aegon. Illyrio has what may be called a fatherly relationship with Aegon. For one, he describes the boy as extraordinarily noble:

“Griff is different. He has a son he dotes on. Young Griff, the boy is called. There never was a nobler lad.” (ADWD, Tyrion II)

Tyrion also notes that Illyrio sounds “oddly sad” when the merchant prince mentions the gifts intended for Aegon (including a special personal present):

“There is a gift for the boy in one of the chests. Some candied ginger. He was always fond of it.” Illyrio sounded oddly sad. (ADWD, Tyrion III)

That he knows Aegon’s food preference is evidence for Illyrio knowing the boy for a long time and seeming eager to please the boy. But more than that, he seems to have a very personal stake in Aegon’s hoped-for marriage to Daenerys and regrets not attending.

“I thought I might continue on to Ghoyan Drohe with you. A farewell feast before you start downriver …” (ADWD, Tyrion III)

“Good fortune,” Illyrio called after them. “Tell the boy I am sorry that I will not be with him for his wedding. I will rejoin you in Westeros. That I swear, by my sweet Serra’s hands.”

The last that Tyrion Lannister saw of Illyrio Mopatis, the magister was standing by his litter in his brocade robes, his massive shoulders slumped. (ADWD, Tyrion III)

Illyrio’s emotional ties to Aegon, Serra’s Targaryen name, her Targaryen features and resemblance to Targaryens of the past and the fact that only the Blackfyre male-line died out point to Illyrio’s investment in Aegon as personal, familial and rooted in Targaryen history. But what about Varys?

The Bright Dragon

“Someone told me that the night is dark and full of terrors. What do you see in those flames?”

“Dragons,” Moqorro said in the Common Tongue of Westeros. He spoke it very well, with hardly a trace of accent. No doubt that was one reason the high priest Benerro had chosen him to bring the faith of R’hllor to Daenerys Targaryen. “Dragons old and young, true and false, bright and dark. And you. A small man with a big shadow, snarling in the midst of all.” (ADWD, Tyrion VIII)

Of all the characters in A Song of Ice and Fire claiming prophetic foresight, the red priest Moqorro seems to have the clearest visions of prophecy. Moqorro’s dragon vision quoted above is one of the most important prophecies of A Song of Ice and Fire. It gives us a pretty clear indication that there are other dragons (Targaryens or Targaryen bastards) out there. But who are these different dragons? Here’s my chart on who everyone might be:

  • Old Dragon: Could be Maester Aemon, but it’s more likely to be Bloodraven
  • Young Dragon: Could reference Aegon (My first thought), but more likely references Jon Snow
  • True Dragon: Daenerys Targaryen
  • False Dragon: Probably Aegon
  • Dark Dragon: Blackfyre

The bright dragon of Moqorro’s prophecy is strange. We can reasonably identify the other potential dragons. But the bright dragon is a mystery. Is there a hidden Targaryen in the story?  The answer is “probably”. Even more, it’s someone we’ve had extensive exposure to from the beginning of the books. To explore this mystery, however, we need to go back into history to another Targaryen: Aerion “Brightflame” Targaryen.

Prince Aerion Targaryen is known to us through his unfortunate encounters with Dunk and Egg in The Hedge Knight. However, his tale didn’t end with his defeat at the Trial of Seven. Instead, he continued living on in Essos, Lys specifically:

“I have sent Aerion to Lys,” [Maekar] announced abruptly. “A few years in the Free Cities may change him for the better.” (D&E, The Hedge Knight)

But Aerion stayed busy in Lys; though he was there for only a few years, he likely fathered several bastards

Aerion Brightfire did not stay in Lys all his life, only a few years. He may have fathered a few bastards there, which would mean Dany has “relatives” of a sort in Lys… but they would be very distant relatives, from the wrong side of the blanket. (So Spake Martin, 10/14/1998)

He also fathered one trueborn son, Maegor who was briefly considered to succeed to the Iron Throne after King Maekar died.

Only a few spoke up for Aerion Brightflame’s son Maegor; an infant king would have meant a long, contentious regency, and there were also fears that the boy might have inherited his father’s cruelty and madness. (TWOIAF, The Targaryen Kings: Maekar I)

The baby prince Maegor then disappears from the narrative altogether. But we know that the council took place in 233 AC when Maegor was around a year old. Given that we don’t have a record of Maegor’s death, it seems suspicious. Why don’t we learn about Maegor’s fate? Perhaps The World of Ice and Fire and GRRM considered Maegor’s fate to be unimportant to the story, but GRRM’s use of omission in The World of Ice and Fire often has the secondary purpose of concealing spoilers for the future of the series.

For my part, I find the timeline and omission suspicious. Maegor was born in 232 AC. Given Aerion’s extended sojourn in Lys and the Great Council passing Maegor over and no further mention of Maegor in the narrative of The World of Ice and Fire, let’s make a jump that Maegor ended up back in Lys. And now for a further jump! Let’s suppose that Maegor lives into adulthood in Lys. Now, if he’s to marry and have trueborn sons or father bastards, it would likely be between 250 and 260 (when he’s between the age of 20-30). Why is that important? Well, Lys is also important to us, because it’s where Varys hails from:

The Lord Varys was born a slave in Lys, did you know? Put not your trust in spiders, my lord.” (AGOT, Eddard V)

Now, we don’t know Varys’ age, but we can suppose that it’s somewhere between 40 and 50 given that he was brought over by Aerys II in 279 or 280 AC (Between the Defiance of Duskendale and the Year of the False Spring). So, this is an admitted leap, but the timeline aligns  for Maegor Brightflame to be the father of Varys.  

Lys is also the city where Serra Mopatis was found in a pillowhouse by Illyrio. So, I’d also go a step further and speculate that Serra Mopatis is also Maegor’s offspring. Of course, if Serra descended from the Blackfyre female line and a brother to Varys, that would make Varys and Serra potentially joint Blackfyre-Brightflame descendents.

Varys’ Shaved Head, Kingsblood and Literary Foreshadowing

Now, the above might seem like very shaky ground, but there’s some supporting circumstantial evidence for Varys’ dual Brightflame/Blackfyre identity. Varys’ appearance and statements about his history provide more backing for this secret dual Targaryen ancestry. But GRRM has also provided some subtle narrative evidence to back Varys’ Blackfyre-Brightflame identity.

Varys’ eunuch status and his bald head are curiosities that might point to something more. Now, before proceeding into this argument, it’s worth noting that hairless eunuchs are common in Essos. Enslaved, hairless Eunuch healers are common among Dothraki khalasars. However, while we can’t be completely sure, Varys seems (And this is my guess) to shave his head. Varys’ potential head-shaving is not unique in Westeros; Tywin Lannister shaves his head as does Thoros of Myr for seemingly aesthetic reasons. However, there are others in the story who shave their head to conceal their identity: Jaime Lannister, for example, is shorn in A Storm of Swords to be less identifiable.

But a better A Song of Ice and Fire parallel is that Aegon V Targaryen. Egg’s head is shaved by Daeron the Drunken to hide his Targaryen features and heritage from King Maekar.

I was supposed to squire for Daeron. He’s my oldest brother. I learned everything I had to learn to be a good squire, but Daeron isn’t a very good knight. He didn’t want to ride in the tourney, so after we left Summerhall he stole away from our escort, only instead of doubling back he went straight on toward Ashford, thinking they’d never look for us that way. It was him shaved my head. He knew my father would send men hunting us. Daeron has common hair, sort of pale brown, nothing special, but mine is like Aerion’s and my father’s.” (D&E, The Hedge Knight)

Thus, Aegon became egg — both as a reference to the shape of his bald head as well as a sly reference to Aegon.

Varys’ potential shaved head fits the mold of concealing his Targaryen identity. His role as a mummer is renowned and his use of disguise is unparalleled in the story. A shaved head could conceal Varys’ pale-blonde Valyrian hair that would be a giveaway to his Targaryen identity. Of course, Varys’ potential pale-blonde hair could also signify his Lysene identity as well. But why conceal that? Hiding his Targaryen heritage rather than his Lysene background better fits as a reasons for shaving and works thematically as a callback to Aegon V’s early days as “Egg.”  In fact, Varys is introduced to us in a peculiar way:

The man [Varys] who stepped through the door was plump, perfumed, powdered, and as hairless as an egg. (AGOT, Catelyn IV)

The other piece of evidence from the story comes from the story Varys tells Tyrion about the sorcerer. According to Varys, he became a eunuch when a sorcerer uses his penis in a blood magic ritual.

I was an orphan boy apprenticed to a traveling folly. Our master owned a fat little cog and we sailed up and down the narrow sea performing in all the Free Cities and from time to time in Oldtown and King’s Landing.

“One day at Myr, a certain man came to our folly. After the performance, he made an offer for me that my master found too tempting to refuse. I was in terror. I feared the man meant to use me as I had heard men used small boys, but in truth the only part of me he had need of was my manhood. He gave me a potion that made me powerless to move or speak, yet did nothing to dull my senses. With a long hooked blade, he sliced me root and stem, chanting all the while. I watched him burn my manly parts on a brazier. The flames turned blue, and I heard a voice answer his call, though I did not understand the words they spoke.” (ACOK, Tyrion X)

Vary’s story brings up an interesting question: if the story is true (and there’s always a chance that it’s not), why did the sorcerer choose Varys among the troupe of mummers that Varys was a part of? Was it simply because Varys was an orphan and didn’t represent a threat to the sorcerer? Or was it because Varys possessed something that the sorcerer needed for his ritual — say, kingsblood.

Whether kingsblood actually has magical properties is beside the point. Practitioners of R’hllor such as Melisandre believe that there is power in kingsblood. Given the pretty high price that the sorcerer paid for Varys, I think it’s possible that Varys may have been selected for this blood magic ritual because he possessed kingsblood — the blood of Aegon the Conqueror and his  Targaryen descendants through Aerion Brightflame and the female Blackfyre line.

Besides the Egg/Varys connection, there’s more literary evidence for Varys’ Targaryen identity. For this section, I’m indebted to Lady Gwyn, Yolkboy, Veltigar and others from Westeros for their thoughts on the Brightfyre theory. The first thing that jumps out is something that Catelyn thinks on in the very first book as her ship approaches King’s Landing. She sees the Red Keep high above the city, and she thinks:

And above it all, frowning down from Aegon’s high hill, was the Red Keep; seven huge drum-towers crowned with iron ramparts, an immense grim barbican, vaulted halls and covered bridges, barracks and dungeons and granaries, massive curtain walls studded with archers’ nests, all fashioned of pale red stone. Aegon the Conqueror had commanded it built. His son Maegor the Cruel had seen it completed. Afterward he had taken the heads of every stonemason, woodworker, and builder who had labored on it. Only the blood of the dragon would ever know the secrets of the fortress the Dragonlords had built, he vowed. (AGOT, Catelyn IV)

George RR Martin loves to do this sort of subtlety in A Song of Ice and Fire. Statements like Maegor’s often contain a secondary, hidden meaning in them. Besides Maegor and his masons, the only person to know the secrets of the Red Keep is Varys. We see Varys’ skill in navigating the tunnels and secret passageways of the Red Keep throughout the story. He leads Tyrion through the passageways to escape, infiltrates his little birds into the passageways to spy on his targets and is seen leading Illyrio expertly through secret passageways and doors through the Red Keep by Arya in A Game of Thrones. There is no one who knows the Red Keep better than Varys.

The First Conspiracy

It all goes back and back, Tyrion thought, to our mothers and fathers and theirs before them. We are puppets dancing on the strings of those who came before us, and one day our own children will take up our strings and dance on in our steads. (ASOS, Tyrion X)

Though Varys and Illyrio had (and have) ample reason and motivation to sit a descendent of Houses Blackfyre and Brightflame onto the Iron Throne, an obstacle stood in their path. Standing athwart Varys and Illyrio’s scheme stood the Red Dragon — House Targaryen, descended from Daeron II and Aegon V. There’s a thematic resonance to two dispossessed Targaryen branches meeting in the persons of Varys, Serra, Illyrio and eventually Aegon: the throne was supposed to be theirs. The Targaryens of Daeron II and Aegon V’s line had denied their ancestors and thus them  their rightful crown.

The First Blackfyre Rebellion had perished on the Redgrass Field in blood and glory. The Second Blackfyre Rebellion ended with a whimper. “They cannot cow us,” Young Daemon proclaimed from the castle battlements after he had seen the ring of iron that encircled them, “for our cause is just.” (D&E, The Mystery Knight)

Fortunately for Varys and Illyrio, while the Targaryens still held the allegiance of much of Westeros and projected an appearance of strength, the power of House Targaryen was waning. They had successfully weathered wars, internal strife, weak rulers and disease, but it was these very events which hollowed them out. Disasters from the Dance of the Dragons to the Blackfyre Rebellions to the Tragedy of Summerhall depleted House Targaryen of actual Targaryens as well as made noble houses and smallfolk alike look askance at the them and their rule.

But if Westeros felt uneasy about the Targaryens, it did not mean that the Westerosi would necessarily turn to the Brightflames or Blackfyres to save the day. Outside of the First Blackfyre Rebellion, outright support for the descendants of Daemon, Aegor or Aerion by the lords or smallfolk of Westeros had not been forthcoming. Given the history, Varys and Illyrio must have realized early on that unseating the Red Dragon couldn’t be accomplished by traditional military of conciliar means.

As such, the early plan wasn’t to invade Westeros militarily — at least initially. Instead, the plan was to invest time and covert action into intelligence preparation of the battlefield for the eventual seizure of the Iron Throne by a Blackfyre-Brightflame descendant. But destroying House Targaryen would be for naught if the Red Dragon was replaced by an equally strong dynasty before Varys and Illyrio could set their own candidate onto the throne. As far as I can tell, Robert’s Rebellion was not supposed to happen. Instead, I think they wanted to weaken House Targaryen to the point where Westeros would grow increasingly disgusted by the actions of the Targaryens. At that point, a heroic savior would arrive — sweeping the hated mad Targaryens from power.

But Varys and Illyrio knew better than to cloak this savior in Brightflame or Blackfyre colors. Instead, this savior would need to be seen as legitimate by lords and smallfolk alike. He would be need to be seen as a Targaryen. Of course, he wouldn’t actually be a Targaryen. Instead, he would be the son of Illyrio and Serra, the union of Daemon Blackfyre and Aerion Brightflame.

Aerys, Tywin and Varys

Varys’ entry into Westeros was set in motion by the doomed relationship between King Aerys II Targaryen and his longtime Hand, Tywin Lannister. Yet Illyrio and Varys also seemed to have an ear to the ground of events going on in Westeros. They seemed to know that Aerys II was sliding increasingly into insanity. Accordingly , they spread word of Varys’ prowess as a spymaster.

I grew so respectable that a cousin of the Prince of Pentos let me wed his maiden daughter, whilst whispers of a certain eunuch’s talents crossed the narrow sea and reached the ears of a certain king. A very anxious king, who did not wholly trust his son, nor his wife, nor his Hand, a friend of his youth who had grown arrogant and overproud. (ADWD, Tyrion II)

Varys’ role was to be a mole in Aerys II’s court while Illyrio accumulated power and the financial backing for their scheme in Pentos. But Varys wasn’t in King’s Landing to simply be the eyes and ears of the conspiracy; he was there to take a direct role in furthering it. In the above quote, we can see that Varys and Illyrio saw Aerys’ failing relationships to those around him as areas to exploit. Specifically, Varys targeted two of Aerys’ relationships: his relationship to his Hand and to his Heir.

Tywin Lannister served as a stabilizing influence on Westeros during his tenure as Hand of the King.

The realm prospered under Tywin Lannister’s stewardship—so much so that King Aerys’s endless caprices did not seem so portentous. Many Targaryens before him had exhibited similar behavior without great cause for concern. From Oldtown to the Wall, men began to say that Aerys might wear the crown, but it was Tywin Lannister who ruled the realm. (TWOIAF, Aerys II)

As such, Tywin’s competent Handship threatened Varys’ long-term plans. But Varys had a fortuitous ally in Aerys II’s paranoia. Well before Varys even arrived, Aerys II believed that Tywin was plotting against him.

Though Tywin Lannister continued as Hand, Aerys no longer met with him save in the presence of all seven Kingsguard. Convinced that the smallfolk and lords were plotting against his life and fearing that even Queen Rhaella and Prince Rhaegar might be part of these plots, he reached across the narrow sea to Pentos and imported a eunuch named Varys to serve as his spymaster, reasoning that only a man without friends, family, or ties in Westeros could be relied upon for the truth. The Spider, as he soon became known to the smallfolk of his realm, used the crown’s gold to create a vast web of informers. For the rest of Aerys’s reign, he would crouch at the king’s side, whispering in his ear. (TWOIAF, Aerys II)

When Varys arrived in King’s Landing, he fixed on Aerys’ fear and began to feed it with the “whispers of his birds.” Varys’ generation of a spy network and aura of omniscience was vital to weakening Aerys II’s thin grip of sanity.

His Grace’s growing madness had become unmistakable by that time. From Dorne to the Wall, men had begun to refer to Aerys II as the Mad King. In King’s Landing, he was called King Scab, for the many times he had cut himself upon the Iron Throne. Yet with Varys the Spider and his whisperers listening, it had become very dangerous to voice any of these sentiments aloud. (TWOIAF, Aerys II)

He saw traitors everywhere, and Varys was always there to point out any he might have missed. (ASOS, Jaime V)

Varys’ action here was to break the relationship between Tywin and Aerys irrevocably, but he didn’t seem to want to the break to lead to outright war. In the end, Varys’ actions were rewarded when Tywin resigned his Handship after Aerys II named Jaime Lannister as a knight of the Kingsguard, depriving Tywin of an heir. More importantly for Varys, it deprived Aerys of a strongman to allow the Targaryens to persevere.

Aerys, Rhaegar and Varys

Artwork by quickreaver

But even if Tywin was gone, Varys recognized a second threat: a powerful heir in the person of Rhaegar Targaryen. The “Weaken the Targaryens” plan simply wouldn’t work with a popular Targaryen standing in its way. Whether Rhaegar was as good and wonderful as many believed, the fact that many believed that he was good and wonderful and worse. Not exhibiting overt signs of Aerys-style madness also ensured that he would be a roadblock to Varys and Illyro’s efforts. Worst of all, as heir to the Iron Throne, Rhaegar couldn’t be set aside as easily as the Hand of the King could. He had to be eliminated.

Fortunately (again) for Varys, Aerys’ paranoia extended to his heir even before Varys arrived in King’s Landing, as Aerys II believed that Rhaegar planned to unseat him. Once more, Varys’ job was simply to feed Aerys’ paranoia. To accomplish this, Varys had his little birds follow and record all of the things that Rhaegar did. Varys then used intelligence against Rhaegar (and possibly lies as well) as a weapon against the crown prince.

Even Varys, though, could not have asked for better fuel for Aerys’ paranoia than the Tourney of Harrenhal. Rhaegar seemingly decided that Aerys needed to be deposed from power. One of the explanations for the Tourney provided in The World of Ice and Fire gives a clue as to Rhaegar’s rationale:

There were those, however, who believed this no more than a ruse, and Lord Whent no more than a catspaw. His lordship lacked the funds to pay such munificent prizes, they argued; someone else must surely have stood behind him, someone who did not lack for gold but preferred to remain in the shadows whilst allowing the Lord of Harrenhal to claim the glory for hosting this magnificent event. We have no shred of evidence that such a “shadow host” ever existed, but the notion was widely believed at the time and remains so today.

But if indeed there was a shadow, who was he, and why did he choose to keep his role a secret? A dozen names have been put forward over the years, but only one seems truly compelling: Rhaegar Targaryen, Prince of Dragonstone.

If this tale be believed, ’twas Prince Rhaegar who urged Lord Walter to hold the tourney, using his lordship’s brother Ser Oswell as a go between. Rhaegar provided Whent with gold sufficient for splendid prizes in order to bring as many lords and knights to Harrenhal as possible. The prince, it is said, had no interest in the tourney as a tourney; his intent was to gather the great lords of the realm together in what amounted to an informal Great Council, in order to discuss ways and means of dealing with the madness of his father, King Aerys II, possibly by means of a regency or a forced abdication. (TWOIAF, The Fall of the Dragons, The Year of the False Spring)

Aerys caught wind of it the plot through (you guessed it) Varys,  So paranoid was Aerys that he actually came out of seclusion to attend the tourney, specifically to prevent any deposition from occurring.

The memory was still bitter. Old Lord Whent had announced the tourney shortly after a visit from his brother, Ser Oswell Whent of the Kingsguard. With Varys whispering in his ear, King Aerys became convinced that his son was conspiring to depose him, that Whent’s tourney was but a ploy to give Rhaegar a pretext for meeting with as many great lords as could be brought together. Aerys had not set foot outside the Red Keep since Duskendale, yet suddenly he announced that he would accompany Prince Rhaegar to Harrenhal, and everything had gone awry from there. (ADWD, The Kingbreaker)

Varys needed Rhaegar to be seen as a traitor by his father, and his continued feeding of Aerys’ paranoia over Rhaegar should be seen in that light. In fact, I’d go so far as to surmise that had Lyanna not caught the eye of Rhaegar at the Tourney of Harrenhal, Aerys would have had him executed at the behest of Varys’ whispers.

But there’s a significant flaw in this idea that the elimination of Rhaegar would weaken the Tagaryens. Rhaegar had a son who would succeed him if he was executed for treason. If Aegon, the son of Rhaegar and Elia, proved to possess his father’s sanity and popularity, it was a foolhardy gamble on Varys’ part.

However, The World of Ice and Fire and a conversation between Barristan Selmy and Daenerys Targaryen provides a window into a hitherto unseen part of Varys’ plan. First, the rift between Aerys and Rhaegar grew the point that some of Aerys’ advisers counseled the Mad King to name another as his heir:

Had any whiff of proof come into their hands to show that Prince Rhaegar was conspiring against his father, King Aerys’s loyalists would most certainly have used it to bring about the prince’s downfall. Indeed, certain of the king’s men had even gone so far as to suggest that Aerys should disinherit his “disloyal” son, and name his younger brother heir to the Iron Throne in his stead. Prince Viserys was but seven years of age, and his eventual ascension would certainly mean a regency, wherein they themselves would rule as regents. (TWOIAF, The Fall of the Dragons: The False Spring)

I wonder, who were these king’s men suggesting Rhaegar’s disinheritance? Varys perhaps? Maybe Varys acting through an agent such as Orton Merryweather? Regardless, it fits with Varys’ whisper campaign against Rhaegar to have Varys join in the chorus of advisers calling for Viserys’ ascension as Heir to the Throne.

But what would Varys hope to get out of Viserys as an heir? Simple: the same madness of Aerys II. Viserys was only seven years old during the Year of the False Spring, but his sanity was already on the fritz. In a conversation between Daenerys and Barristan, Viserys’ similarity to Aerys II is made explicit.

“Some truths are hard to hear. Robert was a… a good knight… chivalrous, brave… he spared my life, and the lives of many others… Prince Viserys was only a boy, it would have been years before he was fit to rule, and… forgive me, my queen, but you asked for truth… even as a child, your brother Viserys oft seemed to be his father’s son, in ways that Rhaegar never did.” (ASOS, Daenerys VI)

Thus, a mad Viserys willing to continue his father’s follies and continuing to alienate the realm further prepared Westeros for the secret return of the Blackfyres and Brightflames through Aegon – or, specifically, Aegon Mopatis. For baby Prince Aegon, the real and actual son of Rhaegar and Elia, had to disappear secretly. Whether he would be spirited away by Varys or ordered executed by Aerys (so long as the evil deed was done secretly — something Varys would likely advise Aerys to do), Aegon would “disappear” and the the black and bright dragon of Illyrio and Serra would emerge red with rust.


Varys and Illyrio’s plan would bear fruit, but it was not the fruit they wanted. It was a decent plan, but Vays overplayed his hand. Varys’ play of getting Rhaegar killed worked, but it was not Aerys who killed Rhaegar to name Viserys as heir. It was Robert Baratheon, leading a 4-realm-strong rebellion against the tyranny of Aerys II, who caved Rhaegar’s chest in with a warhammer.

Moreover, Varys’ successful campaign to drive Tywin and Aerys apart had the final effect of destroying House Targaryen. Varys must have known that his carefully crafted conspiracy to weaken-but-not-destroy the Red Dragon was crumbling around him when Tywin Lannister’s army arrived outside of the walls of King’s Landing. At the very end, Varys tried to save his conspiracy by giving Aerys II actual good advice.

Pycelle convinced the king that his Warden of the West had come to defend him, so he opened the gates. The one time he should have heeded Varys, and he ignored him. (ASOS, Jaime V)

When Aerys ignored the Spider and opened the gates, Tywin sacked the city;Tywin’s son, Jaime Lannister, murdered Aerys II. House Targaryen fell in spectacular fashion, leaving only the seven year old Viserys and the unborn Daenerys as the sole (known) survivors of Aerys II’s line.

This was a disaster for Varys and Illyrio, and it wouldn’t be their last disaster. There was no single point of failure in the implementation of the plan, but there were significant drawbacks at a conceptual level. For one, Varys’ plan to push Westeros to a place where the lords would be willing to side with a rival claimant to the throne worked too well. Aerys’ madness and actions as the Mad King ensured that the realm would rally against the Targaryens eventually. Varys’ actions as Master of Whisperers sped the action up much, much faster than the two conspirators wanted. Varys and Illyrio weren’t ready to move their preferred candidate (who was perhaps a baby at this point) across the Narrow Sea to stake their claim.

But the failure goes deeper than all that. Seemingly, Varys assumed that that he could control events on the ground without the human element interfering – namely,  how his whisperings against Tywin and Rhaegar would impact their psyches as well as Aerys’ paranoia. Varys should have known that Tywin would seek a very personal vengeance against the man who had slighted him so badly. He had only to look at Tywin’s conduct against Tytos’ mistress and, more importantly, his brutal suppression of the Reyne-Tarbeck Rebellion in the Westerlands to know that Tywin would eventually satiate his need for vengeance as well as wash out the stain against the Lannister name.

Varys also failed to account for the very real possibility that Rhaegar might seek redress against Aerys’ madness and threats to remove his heir from the succession. In fact, Varys’ whisperings against Rhaegar’s involvement at the Tourney of Harrenhal was a failure. Varys should have known about the Tourney well ahead of time, given the possibility that Rhaegar used Oswell Whent, a knight of the Kingsguard, as his go-between. If Varys knew about it ahead of time, he likely should have informed Aerys of it long before the lords assembled (given that Varys and Illyrio were fifteen years out from the possibility of Aegon landing). If his late timing was intentional and intended to push the realm that much more towards chaos, again, Varys failed to see the human element of Westeros’ rapidly-growing disgust with Aerys’ kingship and their desire for more immediate action to safeguard their rights and lives from Aerys’ madness.

Varys and Illyrio’s first move in Westeros was a disaster, but this failure had bright spots as well. Viserys’ and Daenerys’ survivor status provided the potential that they could be used as pawns for the future. Horrendous as it is, the utter butchery of Aegon and Rhaenys by Gregor Clegane and Amory Lorch, particularly the smashed head of the would-be Aegon VI, ensured that the body was unidentifiable. The hope of using Aegon’s “miraculous survival and spiriting away by Varys” idea remained plausible.

Better still, it’s likely that around this time or a year or so before, a son of Illyrio and Serra Mopatis was born in Pentos. This child, bearing the conqueror’s name of Aegon, would carry the legacy of the Blackfyres and Brightflames forward into the future. But tragically for Westeros and Essos, this child would also continue Illyrio and Varys’ folly into the next generation.

Thanks for reading. I invite you to follow me on twitter as well as the Wars and Politics of Ice and Fire’s official twitter, facebook and tumblr. Next up: Varys and Illyrio scheme with the Golden Company to place Aegon onto the throne during the main timeline of A Song of Ice and Fire.


Filed under ASOIAF Analysis, ASOIAF Espionage, ASOIAF History, ASOIAF Mystery, ASOIAF Speculation

45 responses to “Blood of the Conqueror, Part 2: The Mummer’s Folly

  1. Jonathan

    Great piece! A shame that the audio was pretty bad in the second half, but i guess that is something I can live with when the content is free and of this quality! 🙂

  2. Lecen

    Isn’t the entire point regarding the history of the Seven Kingdom’s succession laws that ONLY a male who descended in the MALE line of Aegon the Conqueror could inherit the throne?

    The Blackfyre’s main argument was that their first pretender was the son of Aegon IV, while Daeron was actually the son of the Dragonknight and, thus, illegitimate, or, at best, belonging to a junior line from the House of Targaryen.

    What if Aegon VI is truly Aegon the son of Rhaegar? Even if Varys and everyone else close to him were Blackfyre supporters, lacking a Blackfyre male line meant that there was no other option but to support the Targaryens. After all, “red or black, a dragon is still a dragon”.

    This overly complicated conspiracy that could have failed hard in many occasions (what if Varys had never been invited to Westeros? What if Varys had been killed during the sack of King’s landing? How could Ilyrio have a son with silver hair AND purple eyes around the same age of Aegon? Etc, etc…) may be nothing more than Martin’s red herring.

    As Tyrion said, perhaps Aegon is indeed a Targaryen after all.

    • Mike

      Dornish law allows for succession by female line (being full primogeniture). Doran is preparing a plot based on Dornish law. He also has ties with Team Marwyn, by a Sand Snake who’s apprenticing with Marwyn, and it’s known that Marwyn used to hang out in the same circles as Oberyn. Martells are up to a lot more than apparent.

    • (Your comment got me thinking about succession laws in ASOIAF…)

      Although there are many characters in the books who make statements such as “the succession laws are clear” succession laws are always just shy of being an illusion and with an army and good PR they can be voided, ignored or rewritten – that’s that’s what allows for so many varied claimants to the Throne.

      For instance, the succession laws about the male line inheriting only came about following the dismissal of the claim of Rhaenys (Aunt to Rhaenrya, of Dance of the Dragons Civil War fame) to the Iron Throne about a century after the conquest. This established that women only had a claim if they were the last of the Royal line (as Daenerys is now that Viserys is dead in ASOIAF).

      The Targaryens were originally in favour of direct female entitlement to the Throne as they preferred to keep the Throne within the family/bloodline rather than dilute their entitlements through marriage pacts with other Houses.

      Unlike most conquerors in real world European history, the Targaryens couldn’t make peace settlements using marriage and religious conversions to cement their rule. Hence why Aegon the Conqueror had two wives – the intention was to always produce higher numbers of bloodline heirs through both sisters.

      Formal marriage was clearly more of a technicality to the Targaryens at that point in history because Aegon felt he could and should marry both. This suggests the perpetuation of the bloodline had come to trump marriage legitimacy and family names following the wiping out of the Dragonlords during the Doom of Valyria.

      This germinates what I think of as “House DragonLord” which is a slightly different concept to that of “House Targaryen” , which is a Wester(osi)nised version of House DragonLord following centuries of compromise with local Westerosi custom and lost Targaryen history.

      House DragonLord is a descriptor that acknowledges the factionalism of a group of Houses united in their shared dragon blood and therefore ability to control dragons and use them as weapons of conquest.

      The Maesters and the Faith of the Seven sought to undermine these bloodlines and succession laws. Female throne entitlement effectively doubles the number of Targaryen heirs, limiting the possibility of your branch being wiped out.

      The fact that it seems to be women who hatch dragon eggs and not men indicates women held a strong role in maintaining Targaryen security of claim over the throne.

      There is evidence to show that it was the Maesters – who are decidedly anti-magic – and the Faith of the Seven – who have strong religious views about incestuous marriages – who pushed for the First Men/Andal custom prioritising males in the succession when the issue of Rhaenys’ entitlement came about.

      Women dragon-hatchers were to these influential groups the biggest threats of all. So they influenced the laws to suit their own agenda through negotiations with the peaceable, conciliatory Jaeherys I and bargained for a transition to the Westerosi custom of male first inheritance.

      As this article discusses here, Varys and Illyrio are capable of plotting to manipulate the laws back into their favour in a similar fashion. And so the succession laws, while legitimate as laws, are really just obstacles when mounting a claim to the Throne, rather than iron-clad agreements.

      While it is generally easier (particularly in the absence of dragons) for the existing laws to be met to justify the claim, when it comes to matters of blood the Targaryens will in fact accept a bastard to further their own house’s potential as DragonLords any day.

      Throughout history the Targaryens have had to balance their need to keep the bloodlines, and therefore the Throne, secure with the need to keep the lesser branches of their houses from growing too powerful and threatening the main line.

      For instance, when Aegon and his sisters failed to birth large numbers of children, House Velaryon of Driftmark was established as a means of maintaining Valyrian bloodlines while also skirting the Faith’s demand for non-incestuous marriages.

      In the time of ASOIAF Aurane Waters, the bastard of Driftmark, is a reminder of the potential of this house to further the cause of the DragonLords. The descendants of Aerion Brightflame and the Blackfyres also represent – legitimate through marriage or otherwise – DragonLord blood.

      Although the history between House Targaryen and House Blackfyre is controversial and bloodthirsty, the circumstances for Dany and Aegon IV are the same as they were for Aegon the Conqueror and his sisters – they need each other to continue the bloodline, and therefore rule, of the DragonLords. Which is why Varys and Illyrio were disinterested in Viserys and more interested in matching Aegon IV with Daenerys.

      The Blackfyre/Brightflames are basically the new Velaryons in that they are a lesser house with the same bloodline. What Varys and Illyrio seem to have understood far more readily than their Blackfyre predecessors (think of the arrogance of the Fiddler in the Dunk and Egg story) is that although succession laws can be changed or imposed through conquest, establishing legitimacy in the eyes of the Kingdom and the people (represented here by the Faith) is more difficult to achieve.

      Aegon and his sisters discovered this during the Faith Militant uprising, to which Maegor the Cruel later had to return from exile in Essos to counter with significant force.

      With the death of Viserys, Daenerys has the power to both perpetuate the bloodline, produce dragons as weapons of war and legitimise the Blackfyres/Brightflames through marriage – without needing to impose new succession laws by force.

      It pre-empts the demands of the Faith of the Seven in Westeros and its influence over the will of the common people. It then won’t matter if Aegon is a Brightflame, a Blackfyre, a Targaryen or even a nobody of Valyrian blood like Aurane Waters – he’ll be a joint ruler and the establishing force of a new DragonLord dynasty.

  3. Cheers for the excellent article. Everything that you have presented from Illyrio’s point of view makes sense. But with Varys, i always tend to shift into Tin foil mode. Even if he is a secret targ, just placing a blackfyre progeny is too simple an endgame for him. I even think that he might be playing Illyrio as well. Somehow Vary’s desired endgame ‘peace of the realm’ has to be grander or sinister than this …
    Also i refrain from bringing the show here but am really intrigued as to how Varys’s arc will play out without Aegon. How do the showrunners justify him trying to poison Dany in Vaes Dothrak ?

    • My impressions from the book and the show is that the assassination attempt on Dany was always supposed to fail. Varys never intended to kill her because:

      A. He’s truly supporting her as a Targ loyalist, or…
      B. He needed Dany alive as a decoy to distract Robert from Varys’ true goal, which was to place Aegon on the Iron Throne.

      Varys gains nothing out of killing Dany as Robert wanted.

      • He needed her to be alive because he wanted her to go to Asshai and hatch the dragons. Illyrio was the one who gave her the dragon eggs and throughout AGoT Varys’ spy Jorah keeps insisting that she ditch the Dothraki and go there. There is evidence to suggest women of the Targaryen line can hatch dragon eggs using a combination of blood magic and sorcery. As a studied historian like Tyrion Lannister, Aemon Targaryen, Maester Marwyn and Rhaegar Targaryen it seems clear that Varys is aware in more detail than even most Targaryens of the last 200 years of the full potential of dragon blood. The need to go to Asshai to hatch the eggs was pre-empted when Asshai in fact came to Daenerys in the form of Mirri Maz Dur (who has trained under Marwyn) and Daenerys hatched the eggs anyway. Also the plan is to marry Aegon IV off to Daeny because she’s got the right name and together they can establish a new DragonLord dynasty.

        Tyrion steers him away from the logic of this by saying that the legitimacy of her claim depends on the illegitimacy of Aegon’s. In reality Illyrio and Varys would argue the point is moot because they are planning on seizing the Throne through conquest rather than politics in which case succession laws be damned and the more dragon riders and dragons, the better. Daenerys supplies the dragons. (Tyrion is right when he points out there’s nothing much to stop Daenerys doing all this on her own – her autonomy and might has caught Varys and Illyrio by surprise – they thought she would be malleable following years or torment at the hands of her Mad King reincarnated brother. They thought she would be a silent sufferer like her mother, Rhaella, rather than a egalitarian minded, autonomous force like her brother Rhaegar).

  4. Sir Theodred of Pennytree

    Great essay, i had never consideres that varys could be a brightflame, i always thought he was just a blackfire, the brightflame thing doens t seem necessary for the story, the blakfire reason is suficient, the prophecy makes me think though.

  5. Jeremy

    Fascinating. Will there be a part three about the military feasibility of the Golden Company’s invasion? The Lannisters still seem to have a big army. The whole scheme pergaps revolve around securing alliances with other houses, such as the Tyrells.

    • The Tyrells stand to lose as much as the Lannisters. Even more so because they’ve recently seized control in Kings Landing and Tywin Lannister’s now dead and Cersei is a public joke. Strategically speaking they’d be smart to resist and hold the food supply of the Realm to ransom. And Targaryens are resistant to passive take-over through marriage because they only marry each other. There won’t be a fourth Royal Wedding for Margaery Tyrell – especially if it’s Daenerys who takes the Throne.

  6. Marcus

    Great read – thanks! Wouldn’t this require Varys and Illyrio to be plotting (and indeed enacting those (highly speculative) plots) long before Aegon’s birth, though? Seems bizarre that they would go to so much effort without a preferred claimant ready to go, or at least ready to go at some point in the future. Even if the plan was that Illyrio’s eventual future child with Serra would be the Blackfyre/Brightflame claimant, what if the child had died young, or been a girl, or had Illyrio’s looks?

    • Aegon’s “costume box” suggests that they sort of did – in that they just needed a boy with Valyrian features to play his role. In the costume box there are sigils of House Meadows and other noble houses. So it’s possible they’ve been using Mummers farce from the outset and Aegon IV himself may prove to be the biggest farce of all (or not as the case may be, it’s not like these plotters always get exposed). The death of Prince Aegon in Kingslanding at the hands of the Mountain provided the perfect pretext.

  7. Fantastic stuff – I’ve listened twice already. Keep it up and thanks for the audio version.

  8. JY

    I really like the “Young Dragon = Jon Snow” suggestion. I almost forgot that the book series established very early on that Daeron I Targaryen was one of Jon’s heroes and one of personal inspirations.

  9. marie

    Very well written and researched. This gives Vary’s character meaning other than just being a spymaster. I know many get taken in by Varys claim that he only wants ‘peace in the realm’, I never believed it. It becomes obvious due to Varys character assassination of Rhaegar to his father Aerys. By all accounts Rhaegar was everything a prince should be and may have become a great king, even Ned Stark had no ill thoughts towards Rhaegar, which is telling. I’d love to see you delve into the intrigues of Petyr Baelish and is he acting alone?

    • I really like that it explains why Varys was castrated. As the Theon-Ramsay storyline shows, there’s always someone with a hidden agenda behind these bizarre happenings. I mean that really is a bit weird, even for Westeros. It’s obvious it was the followers of the Lord of Light who were responsible for that one (the blue flame a mummer’s trick worthy of Melisandre and the terrifying voice he mentions hearing perhaps coming from a glass candle communication).

      The thing that’s confusing to me though is if Varys is a Targaryen supporter why did the Red God do that to him? There seems to be some allegiance between the Red Religion and the Dragonblood. And Illyrio follows the Red Religion to further his political interests. Throughout history it seems it was the Maesters and the Faith of the Seven that were particularly interested in preventing the Targaryens from furthering their bloodline. Are we sure it wasn’t the MAESTERS who found Varys and castrated him?

      I think Varys and Illyrio would be weary of the Red Religion because they are kind of like the evangelical religion of Planetos. They proactively recruit and use sources of political power – Stannis Baratheon, the war in the North, Thoros of Myr was sent to proselytise to Robert Baratheon – to access followers and legitimise them. So they wouldn’t want that corrupting their plans.

  10. Liam

    I think you might be reading too much into these targaryen references. I think Aegon VI is illyrio/serra’s son, but serra is just what illyrio says she was. The silver hair is common in lys, and wouldn’t be unusual for serra, but does make Aegon more of a certifiable targaryen. I think Aegon is an ordinary boy raised to think he’s a king, and varys has been hinting at this since book 2 with his riddle to tyrion. “Power exists where men believe it exists,”may not be the exact quote. Varys honestly wants peace, through his candidate for the iron throne, who he believes is best suited for it. For this candidate to be accepted, naturally he must be a targaryen.

    There’s a great essay also on here about Daenerys’ future path, and it outlines Varys’/Illyrio’s original plan with aegon and dany and viserys, and how it’s shifted so aegon’s now trying to marry daenerys. I agree with most of that one.

    • marie

      Varys is as Machiavellian a character as Littlefinger, there is very little difference between the two. Varys main ambition in life is to secure his powerbase as the power behind the throne, and he does not care how many people have to die in order for him to succeed. It was Varys who helped destabilise the Kingdom by using King Aerys insanity for his own nefarious reasons. The country would have had a good king in Rhaegar, but that didn’t suit Varys and so Rhaegar had to go and many lives were lost because of Varys ambition. Who made Varys the arbiter of what a good leader is? It takes a massive ego to think that only you can find the right king and then ‘groom’ him for the role.

      Aegon is already showing a reckless streak, a tumultuous nature and seems to be a headstrong young man with his eyes firmly fixed on the small picture. I hope Varys plan backfires and he finds himself with a young lad who will not listen to his ‘good advice.’

      I haven’t even mentioned Varys ‘little birds’ who I doubt live to old age. I should think once they can no longer fit in the walls, they are systematically murdered. These are children, and goodness knows how many he has murdered over the years.

      As I said Varys and Littlefinger are two faces of the same coin and neither care how much destruction they cause so long as they secure their own powerbase.

    • I think they’ve got a boy who will be whoever they want him to be. When he marries Daenerys he becomes legitimate because she’s the one with the right name. He just needs to claim her bloodline to entice her into the match. It doesn’t really matter whether he’s Brightflame, Blackfyre or Targaryen or some nobody with the right physical features. All it takes to win people over who are looking for a change in leadership is to give them the right story.

  11. Ioseff

    I thought that the thing was that Varys wanted to “demythisize” the blood claim in order to be a king, he presents a king who seems decent and fit-to-rule and people accepts him, then he reveals: “Hey, he is not son of Rhaegar after all, you swallowed the lie, meaning that blood matters not, integrity matters most, so now let’s make the law that only through great council, intense study and sanity a person of any blood can be chosen king”

    I say this because GRRM said that Varys is the most misunderstood character together with Melissandre, so there you have it, he is not into the blood claim but only to give a stability far greater than before.

    Now that I think about three heads of the (false) dragon, what happened to Aegon II bastards? I know that there were more than just Blackfyres from Aegon IV, but they can be considered one head, Brightflame and we have two, the third head of the false dragon would be from Aegon II? From Rhaenyra who perhaps had another bastard we have yet to hear?

    • There is certainly merit in the argument that power is an illusion. And also that would highlight the case that the reality of power is that most of the work associated with it is gaining it and protecting it, rather than using it, and that 99% of the work that goes into gaining and protecting it is bogged down in silly issues like whether someone has the right name or not, whether their parents were married when they were born, whether they have certain gifts or qualities – when all of these things are in fact subjective and open to interpretation and exploitation.

      GRRM writes a lot about the futile role of the philosopher – they’re probably in the best position to receive and understand power but their ability to use their philosophical prowess is undermined by the need to be distracted by the more pressing issues of the day.

      If you look at the World of Ice and Fire the most admirable ruler was Aegon Targaryen because he effectively ruled as a figurehead and had his sisters manage the ruling with the small council (he of course established the small council). He shared the power around and distanced himself enough from the pressing matters of ruling that he could address the philosophical issues of the day – whether roads needed to be built, whether people would have enough to eat come winter, how regional conflicts could best be resolved etc. Aegon was a philosopher who preoccupied himself with power theory and its execution and proactively sought philosophical issues to address at the grassroots level of the kingdom.

  12. Eggshell Joe

    Loved it, can’t wait for the next installment!

  13. The audio for this isn’t showing up in my Wars of Ice and Fire podcast feed. Not sure if you didn’t include it on the podcast feed, or if something’s screwed up on my end. It isn’t that big of a deal, I can just read the essay, but since I listen to podcasts while driving at work, I’d love it if you added it to the feed or provided a download link for the mp3?

    Love your work!

  14. Pingback: Examining Aegon and the Blackfyre theory. | rainingsteel

  15. Tony Moore

    This is even better on the 2nd listening, after having devoured Part 3. You’ve now got me as excited about this as you did about the Battle of Ice/Pink Letter. While we wonder if TWoW will manage to come out before Season 6, we can now also fret about whether you’ll finish this series before TWoW.

  16. Ser Biffy Clegane

    I love the Varys Targ theory, which was new to me and blew my mind. What’s the evidence that he shaves his head, though – I thought all the Ice and Fire eunuchs were naturally bald?

  17. SFDanny

    The one thing that makes me hesitate in buying into the Varys, and more importantly Young Griff as Blackfyres, or Brightfyres, or any sort of Targaryens is Varys hatred of magic. He tale to Tyrion about how he was cut and the voice he heard is really the thing that makes me think of him as a man out to rid the world of magic, and those that base their claim to rule on magic, dragons, etc. I’ve never believed from book one that he was a Targaryen supporter. Much less that he and Illyrio were the masterminds behind a plot to really put Viserys or Danerys on the Iron Throne. One doesn’t allow the prime claimant to the throne to wander off into the Dothraki Sea with only one bodyguard if he is serious about putting Viserys on the throne. Much less send out assassins to kill the second in line to the throne.

    Why then would he put a different branch of the same family into power? Perhaps he really believes he can control “Aegon” by keeping his Blackfyre/Brightfyre past a secret to hold over him unless he does Varys’s bidding. I don’t know, but it gives me pause to think his aim is to leave Targaryens of whatever color – Black or Red – on the throne. His hatred seems to fit better with placing a commoner on the Throne who is trained to rule better than the Targaryens have done. Not that the clues you have shown, and others have not, don’t point into some Blackfyre interests in the plot. I have to reserve judgement here because of my stated reservations.

    What isn’t said, and what too often is overlooked is the one huge plot hole Martin has give us in the Young Griff storyline – the five year gap. Not Martin’s once intended jump of five years into the future, but the gap in Young Griff’s story and how Varys, Illyrio, Connington intend to convince others, most importantly Prince Doran, that Young Griff is Aegon?

    Varys’s or Illyrio’s testimony of Young Griff being the real Aegon secreted away following a swap with the “Pisswater Prince” won’t persuade any former supporters, much less the Prince of Dorne. Jon Connington left Westeros before the swap was supposed to have taken place, banished by Aerys after the Battle of the Bells. He joined the Golden Company and was a member of their ranks for five years. Even if Doran is persuaded Jon Connington is really who he says he is, he cannot vouch for Aegon those first five years after the sack.

    No, we have to have someone whom Doran trusts who will tell Arianne, true or not, Young Griff is Rhaegar and Elia’s son, Aegon. They have to have first hand knowledge they will swear to that they know Aegon survived and he is the man raised and trained by Connington. Since this article deals with so much in speculation, let me say I think that really only leaves one person that can stand a chance of doing so. Ashara Dayne. Ashara Dayne who has disguised herself as Septa Lemore and has raised the young boy since the time she left with him from Westeros. She may be lying, or she could be telling the whole truth, or part of it, but I think she is critical for this plot hole. Doran knows her, Doran trusts her, and she is of high enough rank with a history of close contact with Rhaegar, Elia, and their children that other supporters would believe her as well.

    Varys knows his problem in getting nobles to believe him, and he knows Doran is the key. He cannot just tell his tale and hope the Lords of Westeros will stake their lives and holdings on his word. He has to have a way to make them believe.

    Not that I believe he is telling the truth. Rhaegar had no reason to trust Varys with his children, and Elia, even after the events of the Trident, had little reason to do so as well. Unless she knows of the Pyromancer plot. Desperation to have Aegon escape that fate my explain it, but we have no clue she knew. More likely, Varys sees the unidentifiable condition of Aegon’s corpse as Tywin lays it before Robert, and he seizes upon an opportunity to build up a pretender. How he convinces Ashara to go along is a very interesting question. Anyway, enough of my reactions and speculation. Loved the article, and the ideas in it.

    • SFDanny

      Sorry, got so involved in posting before running out the door I forgot to do a simple proof read. Among the many mistakes is the phrase “others have not” should read “others you have not.” It is a reference to things like the Golden Company’s seemingly easy acceptance of a man claiming to be Rhaegar’s son as someone to risk all of their lives supporting. After over a century trying to replace the Targaryen line Rhaegar represented with their own Blackfyre dynasty, it seems amazing how they are willing to die for “Aegon.” Perhaps the commanders of the Golden Company know something Griff and Young Griff do not. Though you did not mention it, I think it does tend to support the idea “Aegon” is a Blackfyre.

    • I have been wondering about how Varys and Illyrio would prove the legitimacy of Aegon (if that is in fact who it is). The presence of Aurane Waters at court, the existence of the Velaryons and the fact that there are multiple Valyrian descendents in Essos indicates nobody is just going to buy it if he turns his hair from blue to Silver and bats the eyelashes framing his violet eyes.

      My thoughts are that there must be someone who can attest to Varys swapping the baby (this could be Varys himself – once out of the reach of the Lannisters/Baratheons and following a Targaryen restoration he could use this as a story that confirms his unwithering support). He may have the woman who gave the Pisswater Prince away to be swapped with Aegon on payroll so she can give testimony at a Great Council, or to plead the case for marriage to Daenerys.

      Barristan Selmy and Jaime Lannister are two Kingsguard who may have assisted with protecting Rhaegar’s children. Jaime wouldn’t have been someone to lean on for that when Tywin was alive but might speak out now that the Tyrells are usurping the power of his house. Barristan Selmy is obviously a bit of a Rhaegar fan – not clear if he’s in the loop with Varys though. When Jorah asks him a few guarded questions to check if he had been in small council meetings and hearing the reports from Jorah from spying on Daenerys it seems obvious Barristan knows nothing about it. Barristan might actually have turned out to be a bit of a complication for Varys as he presents someone who can influence Daenerys to be independent of Aegon and strike out on her own. (In the show the Sons of the Harpy kill Barristan Selmy and I wonder if that’s part of some plot line to get rid of him and put Tyrion Lannister in to orchestrate the marriage to Aegon and manipulate Daenerys. This would mean Varys is the puppet master behind the Sons of the Harpy).

      • Just to add: After all Varys does specialise in chaos and it is the chaos associated with the Masters in Meeren and the Sons of the Harpy that led to Dany marrying Hizdahr zo Loraq. From this she has come to value the art of political marriages to address dissent. In the show Hizdahr is already dead at the hands of the Sons of the Harpy and I don’t see him lasting much longer in the books as Daenerys continues to focus her ambitions on crossing the narrow sea.

  18. Faceless Woman

    Really great read! I had sort of ignored the Brightflame part of this analysis in the past (not being brushed up enough on my Targ family tree and history to believe the connection was more than speculation from very few details…). That said, i can see it being very true, and–in true GRRM fashion–explains a lot about Varys’ and Illyrio’s motivations and rationales. I’m sure someone else must have pointed this out, but since you make the connection about Targ descendants’ names being similar I got to thinking there really is something there with Serra/Saera/Viserra…not hard to make the connection when you think how close Varys is to Viserys or Vaerys (I know we don’t have a character by that name but the Targ habit of “ae” in the name makes me wonder)!

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  21. Bail o' Lies

    The Dragons could just be the duality or contrasting nature between Targaryens and Blackfyres instead of individual people. Old, True and Bright for the Targaryen’s and Young, False, and, Dark for the Blackfyres.

    But if you think each is a person. Then you only have Aemon(now dead), Aegon(the only Blackfyre in this), Bloodraven, Dany and Jon (unless you think Varys is one).

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  25. I really like it when GRRM establishes links between the Dunk and Egg stories of a century earlier and the events of ASOIAF and I think this is a pretty legitimate theory. We have all the clues from the Dunk and Egg stories to set the scene – Egg shaving his head; Aerion being a legitimate Targaryen asshole who gets shipped off to Essos; the Blackfyre Rebellion of the Fiddler. We know that Varys was probably castrated because he had King’s Blood (notice how in the books when Melisandre needs Kings’ Blood for sacrifice she takes it not from Kings but from lower order family members – baseborn bastards and the like. Varys seems to fit this category in an echo of the Gendry storyline). I don’t see much here that discusses whether he has purple eyes but as only a half or quarter Targaryen it could be quite likely that he doesn’t. As a family outcast Aerion Brightflame probably sought out the Blackfyres – it may even be that he and Egg’s father, Maekar, maintained cordial ties with them across the narrow sea in order to undermine the claim of Baelor Breakspear and his sons Valarr and Matarys. After all Maekar is thought to be responsible for the death of Baelor at the Tourney of Ashford. This would have been done behind the back of Bloodraven. Some years after the Ashford Tourney Dunk and Egg are at Whitewalls when the Blackfyres mount another charge. It may be that Aerion was involved from a strategic perspective in Essos, using it as an opportunity to try to clear a few more obstacles to Maekar acquiring the throne.

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  28. Felix

    I still wonder what happen between Rhaegar and Lyanna ? Just a normal love story or something happened and saved the prince’s life?
    second, if Rhaegar planed to unseat his father, why fought for his banner until die under Robert’s warhammer?

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