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Wars and Politics of Ice and Fire · Political, Military and Historical Analysis of A Song of Ice and Fire
Wars and Politics of Ice and Fire 
Amazing job! Congrats
No pun intended, but we are waiting on Bloof Of The Conqueror, Pt 6!
Great job by the way, as always!
With kind regards!!!!
So if TWOW is going to be the same size as Dance, roughly 1500 pages, and he thought in spring 2015 he could finish it by the end of the year, shouldn’t he be very close to finishing TWOW? What is your professional take? He had to be nearly 2/3 the way done in spring 2015 to think he could finish in a year which would put his page count near or slightly above 1000. Add in a year of writing, even with it going bad and add 250 pages. Shouldn’t he be extremely close to the 1500 manuscript pages? Help make sense of how close to finishing he may or may not be. Thanks!
Let’s hypothetically say that GRRM was at 1200 manuscript pages for TWOW in May 2015. He’d be at he 2/3 count in total manuscript pages. However, look back at all the notablog entries for ADWD in 2009/2011. GRRM hit the 1100 manuscript page mark around late 2009, and the book was released a year and a half later.
The thing is… in total, GRRM wrote over 1800 manuscript pages for ADWD. He cut 100 pages (5 chapters) to TWOW in 2010, editing cut down the total towards the end and more chapter cuts to the TWOW brought the total count down to 1510 manuscript pages.
Now, also consider the amount of rewriting and restructuring that GRRM was doing for ADWD in the last year and a half. While it was not as bad as the early parts of the writing, see all the times GRRM talked about rewriting a chapter. One entry from 2010 indicated that the chapter he was working on was the 4th rewrite of that particular chapter.
In his Winds notablog post, he indicated that he was struggling with major restructurings and rewrites for TWOW. So, while GRRM may not have struggled with the same plot points that he did in ADWD, he was dealing with many of the same writing issues as he did with ADWD.
So, even if GRRM was 2/3 of the way to 1500, his track record would indicate that a) he will probably write more than 1500 manuscript pages b) Being 2/3 of the way done doesn’t mean that a TWOW release is right around the corner and c) He’s struggling with re-writes.
Put it all together, and I don’t think that he’s extremely close. Given GRRM’s general sentiment about his progress, I’m not sure GRRM thinks the book will be on the shelves in 3-6 months.
I think… and it’s just a guess… GRRM might be in the 6-9 month range out from submitting a manuscript, but that’s just a guess.
I suppose we’ll have to see, but 1200 manuscript pages, while good progress, does not mean the book will be done in a month or two.
If we get this book before Thanksgiving 2016, I’ll be happy. Would not surprise me that he’s just trying to get the book out before season 7 in spring of 2017.
Im just trying to figure out if I’m going to continue watching the show or just buy the blu-rays for season 6 and beyond to watch after the books are done.
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Awesome collection!
Some extra things you might want to add:
GRRM met Maisie Williams and Sophie Turner, then japed “I’m having pangs of guilt about all the horrors that they’re going to have to go through in the months and years to come, thanks to me. I’m going to have to rewrite the books so only nice things happen to Arya and Sansa. Might change the story some.”, Feeling Guilty,10/26/2009, https://grrm.livejournal.com/117709.html
At the Citadel, Gyldayn was known as Archmaester Fun. The Rogues Are Coming, 3/12/2014, https://grrm.livejournal.com/360936.html?thread=18793960
GRRM hinted he killed a favavorite character in TWOW. A Favorite Character, 9/1/2014, http://grrm.livejournal.com/381923.html
Late Lord Frey starring TMK confirmed. http://grrm.livejournal.com/184176.html?thread=11366512
Future appearance:
http://grrm.livejournal.com/414422.html?thread=20500950#t20500950
http://grrm.livejournal.com/507063.html?thread=25301943#t25301943
Fire&Blood or TWOW in 2018/2019, https://grrm.livejournal.com/544709.html
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